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‘Unannounced Demonstration’: What does this mean?

Sunday, December 17th, 2006

One of the characteristics of a not-so-free country is a not-so-free press: a press that doesn’t print the truth, but some ‘version’ of the truth more palatable to the elites that rule.

In a free (or freer) country, it’s much better, but there’s still a disturbing trend to report not what happened, but what one would have liked to imagine happened. Truthiness, as Stephen Colbert would say. Rather than report the objective truth, they report what they’d like to be true.

A very fond truthiness that’s been oft-reported is ‘youths’ rioting in Paris and elsewhere in Europe. Rather than reporting the truth — that disaffected Muslims are rioting in thousands and tens of thousands across France, and continuing to burn cars by the hundreds every week, we speak of ‘youths’, and don’t mention the billion-plus dollars in damages they’ve done over the last year.

This allows multi-cultural boosters to bask in the warm glow of feeling that they’re not racist, even while society starts to tear itself apart. It’s not so good for, well, people who drive cars or people who don’t want to be burned to death.

Copenhagen Riots Copenhagen youths stage an unannounced
demonstration last night. AP photo

Last night, the famous ‘youths’ rioted again in Copenhagen. Did I say ‘rioted’? I meant ’staged an unannounced demonstration’. In a story almost worthy of Pravda, Reuters writes:

Protestors throw stones at police vans in a Copenhagen street December 16, 2006 … hundreds of young people started an unannounced demonstration.

What does this mean? Who are these youths? Are the Danish really going that crazy? More:

Several hundred demonstrators threw cobblestones, bottles and fireworks at police and erected blazing barricades made from Christmas trees, trash cans and bicycles, police said.

They were setting Christmas trees on fire. Maybe they were atheists? Maybe they were anti-Christian? Maybe they were Christians unhappy about people saying “Happy Holidays” instead of “Merry Christmas”?

Ah-ha! Maybe it was leftists:

The conflict over the youth centre has been brewing since 2000 when local government sold the building that houses the centre. Left-wing activist have been using the centre as a base since 1982.

It was certainly very violent:

“It was extremely violent. It looked like a war zone and it’s been many years since we last had to use tear gas on the streets,” police spokesman Flemming Steen Munch told reporters.

Police responded with tear gas attacks and split the main crowd of demonstrators into several smaller ones using armoured cars. Groups of demonstrators walked toward the city centre smashing shop windows, leaving a trail of destruction.

Tear gas and armored cars? Some angry youths.

In the end, this story tells us nearly nothing. We don’t know if it was a mass Muslim riot like almost all the other ‘youths’ rioting in Europe of late; we don’t know if it was a bunch of leftist squatters; we don’t know if it was people mad about Christmas! We read the story, and we’re simply not informed… other than that violence is breaking out.

Truthiness is such a wonderful thing.

-wolfe

And so it begins…

Friday, December 15th, 2006

This piece is about a politician. Or about writing. Or images. Or what the media does, both subtly and blatantly. Even though ed makes an appearance and makes fun of me, it’s mostly not that funny.

We have a righteous wind at our backs, and, as we stand at the crossroads of history, we can make the right choices and meet the challenges that face us.

Americans do seem to love perpetual political campaigning… for all that we say we don’t. Or maybe just US journalists love it.

The somewhat Kennedy-esque first TV commercial for Senator Barack Hussein Obama Jr.’s possible presidential run has surfaced here.

Barack, Michelle and Sasha Obama
Sasha, Michelle, and Barack Obama (l to r).
Scott Olson, Getty Images

Note what I did with his name above? I gave his name in full. This probably subtly attacks the man: the technically accurate “Jr.” — he was named for his father — is somewhat demeaning. The ‘Hussein’? A lot of people are talking about that. Some of (right-wing) talk radio is pushing the ‘Hussein’ angle.

Granted, a politician running in 1948 named “George Hitler Jones” might have attracted some attention, but Hussein is a much more common name.

(There’s also the subtle point that mostly full names are only given in the U.S. for notorious serial killers).

I don’t think there’s any ‘there’ there. It’s about as controversial as the “W” in George W. Bush’s name. Both are named for ancestors. And, as Senator Obama sensibly noted, if you can get by the name “Barack Obama” the Hussein really shouldn’t give you pause.

But I thought I’d just dissect my reference to his name. Signals we send are subtle; sometimes unintentional. They can be propagandistic nevertheless. Henceforth, I’ll refer to the man as “Barack Obama”, but I thought the fact that his middle name is “Hussein” is an interesting bit of trivia.

I suppose I could leave it as an exercise for the reader, but I’ll point out the two ways I boosted him in this article.

First, opening with “We have a righteous wind at our backs”. I could have opened with no quote, or quoting him denying the scandal of a Chicago land deal (see below). That would have certainly altered the initial perception of the man in this post.

Second, a smiling picture of the man with his family. Short of kissing babies or running into a fire to rescue people, there’s little that’s more telegenic for a politician. Pictures can exalt or destroy politicians. Consider the two rides in tanks of two politicians in the ’80’s: Margaret Thatcher and Michael Dukakis. (The latter was the Democratic governor of Massachusetts who challenged George H.W. Bush for the presidency in 1988).

Everyone believed Dukakis was a technocratic nerd (I say that as a bit of a technocrat and maybe a nerd — though at least a tall and athletic one — myself). [can someone blog and NOT be a nerd? --ed.]. The tank pictures didn’t help.

No one in this galaxy, or our neighboring galaxies, believed Thatcher was anything but tough — very tough. Riding in a tank — however prim and womanly she looked — just plain felt like the kind of thing she’d do on weekends for recreation. After running over Michael’s Foot. [Everyone's going to think you mean Dukakis' foot, and no one will get the joke --ed. (well it made you laugh -wolfe). Touché, but it's still a bad joke -- ed.]

Dukakis was dressed photo-op-style for it, down to having a helmet with his name on it. Thatcher was wearing a flowing, female [trouble using the word 'feminine' with Thatcher? -ed.] ensemble that looked as though she’d just stepped out of Selfridges. [Little known fact: the founder of Selfridges was born in Ripon, Wisconsin, a town that Diesel should like].

The results? Well, here goes:

Dukakis and tank
Hi, I’m Mike Dukakis, and I’m a dork. AP Photo

Thatcher and tank
Which way is Moscow? BBC Photo

Dukakis, in all his 5′6″ magnificence [come on, give his real height -ed.] OK, OK, … Dukakis in all his 5′8″ magnificence looked, like, well, a technocratic dork. That’s worse than nerd. I think. Worse yet, going up against a tall, patrician genuine war hero in George H.W. Bush (youngest carrier aviator pilot in the USN; gave up university to go into combat in WW 2) he looked… well… pathetic is the kindest word.

Thatcher, by contrast, looked as though she wanted to nuke Moscow, yet unlike Dukakis was completely inappropriately dressed.

Papers that endlessly reprinted the Dukakis disaster of a photo-op were subtly saying “vote Republican”. Or maybe they were saying “Dukakis is an idiot”. Similar thing I guess. Papers that endlessly reprinted the Thatcher tank photo-op were, of course, the Sun.

With that digression into politician photos and photo-ops, we come to an important point on Obama. Recent allegations have surfaced that he was the beneficiary (to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars) in a sweet land deal seemingly orchestrated by a supporter of his.

Now see what I just did? I talked endlessly about other things, including going back to the 1980’s then unleashed an important bit of current (negative) news on Barack Obama.

This is what newspapers call ‘burying the lede’. (Yes, ‘lede’ not ‘lead’, though it means much the same thing).

Newspaper stories, unlike blog posts or newspaper columns, are written so that they can be chopped off, arbitrarily, at the end any paragraph, after about 1-3 paragraphs. Try it in a good newspaper and you’ll see. It’s quite an interesting style of writing.

By ‘burying the lede’, you not only hope that the conclusion (A1 story continued on page A17) will not be read because of a ‘jump’ in pagination, you also hope that online readers won’t read it, either because of a ‘jump’ (beyond a big online ad) or because they are bored. You also faintly hope an editor may excise part of the damaging information at a paragraph break. Purely for space constraints of course. Even online space constraints. Of course.
But you can then truthfully say, yes, we reported on Obama’s land scandal problems in a page A1 story.

Needless to say, when it’s a Republican, the lede tends not to be so buried.

Senator Obama’s land scandal? Oh, it’s smelly. But pretty much par for the course with politicians. Seems about as bad as anything George W. Bush has gotten up to, but only one instance rather than several. And nothing near Hilary Clinton’s “Whitewater” and “Cattlegate” scandals. (In the latter, a $100,000 bribe to her husband was ‘laundered’ through Hillary Clinton.) And Senator Obama’s reacting appropriately, I think. You can read the linked article for more information. Unless Senator Obama is lying, there’s not much ‘there’ there.

What do I like about the man? Though this is a buried lede, I’m boldfacing it in the hopes that it will be seen. From Wikipedia:

In his 1995 memoir, Dreams from My Father, Obama describes a nearly race-blind early childhood. He writes: “That my father looked nothing like the people around me –- that he was black as pitch, my mother white as milk –- barely registered in my mind.

Wikipedia goes on (accurately, I think), to describe him as a cultural and ethnic Rorschach test:

an ink spot on which his fans can project their own personal histories and aspirations. Obama’s own self-narrative helps encourage diverse multiethnic affinities. In Dreams from My Father, he links his maternal family history to possible Native American ancestors and distant relatives of Jefferson Davis, president of the southern Confederacy during the Civil War. Speaking before an elderly Jewish audience during his 2004 campaign for U.S. Senate, Obama likened the linguistic roots of his first name Barack to the Hebrew word baruch, meaning blessed.

This country is too screwed up on ethnicity and race. To our detriment. I hope that we’ll see an end to legally enforced racial discrimination by the 2020’s, and an end to most other forms this century. But I’m not holding my breath.

In the end, do I support the man? Heck no. His voting record in Illinois was virtually unreconstructed Marxism. His quotes are long on platitudes and short on ideas. But I think he’s a good and decent man and one worth thoughtfully looking at. You may differ.

-wolfe

On annoying politicians

Wednesday, December 13th, 2006

This story is pretty sad. Especially since the man concerned had to know it was coming. Or maybe he really did think being a Democrat gave him +5 armor of invulnerability to impertinent media questions?

It begs the question, of course: How can the Intelligence Committee do effective oversight of U.S. spy agencies when its leaders don’t know basics about the battlefield? …

Al Qaeda is what, I asked, Sunni or Shia?

“Al Qaeda, they have both,� Reyes said. “You’re talking about predominately?�

“Sure,� I said, not knowing what else to say.

“Predominantly — probably Shiite,� he ventured.

He couldn’t have been more wrong.

Al Qaeda is profoundly Sunni. If a Shiite showed up at an al Qaeda club house, they’d slice off his head and use it for a soccer ball.

That’s because the extremist Sunnis who make up a l Qaeda consider all Shiites to be heretics.

At least he was somewhat more knowledgeable than two of the Republicans on the committee were. On the other hand, he had several months warning that these questions were being asked by this reporter, after his two colleagues were ridiculed in the New York Times (justly so, for once).

On this one, I’m against a partisan spin. There seem to be plenty of political ‘leaders’, both Republican and Democrat who seem profoundly ignorant of the details of the forces we’re facing. It would have been nice, of course, to see the NY Times, before the election, publish both Democrat and Republican ignorance of these issues, but, hey, what do you expect of a pamphlet run out of Howard Dean’s office? [so you couldn't resist at least one partisan dig? -ed.]

What to do? Hope they learn, I guess, and try and shame them into learning. Hence this blog post, in its own tiny way.

Here’s the crash course for Chairman Reyes and his colleagues:

Islam is divided into two primary theological camps: Shiite and Sunni. Essentially, the Shiites believe that there is no continuity (after the death of Mohammed) of divinely inspired political leadership. Only the heirs of the fourth Caliph (leader of the Muslim world or Caliphate — roughly analogous to a kingdom), Ali, were legitimate religious leaders. Moreover, when the 12th Imam (religious leader) disappeared in 931 A.D., they believed that brought an end to divine leadership (via humans).

The Sunni, by contrast, believe that there was an unbroken divinely inspired succession of Caliphs all the way into the 20th century, ceasing only with the post-World War I breakup of the Ottoman Empire.

You can now imagine how devastating this was for a devout Sunni — an end to an unbroken succession of leadership by God. Imagine, for a devout, fundamentalist Catholic an abrupt end to the apostolic succession, and the Pope and Cardinals vanishing completely like dust in the wind. Then imagine that the Pope was their Lord Temporal as well as Lord Spirtual.

And you’ve got some idea of the repercussions for Sunni fundamentalists.

And you can imagine the arguments between the Sunni and the Shiites.

Thus, the formation of the Muslim Brotherhood as a reactionary force in Egypt in 1928. Hating what they viewed as Western permissiveness/modernism/Christianity, they sought to overthrow that by force. Gradually, the Brotherhood nominally shifted to non-violence over the century to come. But not before birthing Hamas, and, effectively, al-Qaeda. These three, are, of course, Sunni.

The major Shiite terrorist group (depending on whether or not we define the nation of Iran as a terrorist group) is of course Hezbollah. A creature of Iran, operating in Palestine. Shiite to the core, it is nevertheless seemingly willing to work with Sunni extremists against ‘zionists’ (Jews) and ‘crusaders’ (westerners).

In the end, the Shiites are perhaps 10-15% of Islam; the Sunni almost all of the balance.

Here endeth the lesson.

-wolfe

Wherein wolfe says nice things about Democrats

Wednesday, December 6th, 2006

I’m going to cover my butt with this one by creating a new tag, “humor”. Some of this is obviously satiric, namely the parts that offend you. I’m also going to use the term ‘communist’ herein in a fashion that may be offensive to pretty much everyone. The only people I do apologize to are readers from eastern Europe and south-east Asia who had the misfortune to live under it.

The muse has told me this shall be a little long, too. Be warned.

Regular readers know that I regard all those to the left of Genghis Khan with a suspicious and beady eye when it comes to politics . It makes life easy; basically everyone is suspect.

A gray wolf gazes
Wolfe eyes suspected communists and thinks about
eating them. source: Gary Kramer, US Fish and
Wildlife Service
, via The Wolf Den at fohn.net

I’ve had some dismay over the Democrats winning, because, well, bluntly, the terrorists can spin it as a win, so polarized are our politics. And they don’t deserve to win. They’re a bunch of idiots with no real plan, no clue what they’re doing.

Of course, the problem is that the Republicans are a bunch of idiots with no real plan, no clue what they’re doing.

And the Republicans appear to have achieved what was long thought impossible: be more corrupt than the Democrats.

Oh, and I’ve had dismay over the Democrats winning because they’re even bigger communists than the Republicans.

Now, back to the terrorists spinning this as a win: I’ve been reluctant to say so, because I think it’s politics in the style of LBJ: “My opponent will incinerate the earth”, except in this case it’s possibly worse: “My opponent will surrender the earth to the terrorists and let them incinerate it”. OK, not as punchy, but pretty bad.

Also, it’s simply not true. The top 3 issues in voters’ minds were all related to corruption, competence and terrorism. Iraq — even of the “cutting and running variety” — was down at number 4.

Yet, the expected has happened. Terrorists have rejoiced. Except two funny things have also happened.

First, Bush blinked and accepted Rumsfeld’s resignation. Whether he fell on his sword or was pushed, same deal. I think it’s greatly to the President’s credit that he did so only after the elections. A lot of Republicans are bemoaning the fact that if he’d done so before the elections, they’d have won a lot of tight races and might still control the senate.

Let’s say that’s true. If it’s not, it makes no difference when Rumsfeld resigned. If true, the President put country ahead of party. Good for him. [I thought you were going to say nice things about Democrats, not the President -ed.]

Man, this thing about saying nice things about Democrats is harder than I thought. Have I done it yet? Let’s see, I called them idiots with no plans, stupid, corrupt communists… oh and I referred negatively to LBJ’s anti-Goldwater campaign… Oh! I said something nice about the President. He’s a Democrat, isn’t he? [No. --ed.]

What, pharmacare, open borders, the most massive expansion of the laughable Federal Department of Education since Jimmy Carter — he’s not a domestic Democrat in wolf’s clothing? [He seems it, but he really isn't. Especially on foreign policy. And you still need to say something nice about Democrats --ed.]

Saying he expanded the U.S. Department of Education isn’t a nice thing about Democrats? [No, because a) he's a Republican, and, b) you referred to them as laughable --ed.]

Hey! I’m on to you, ed guy! The US Department of Education’s URL is www.ed.gov! You’re from them aren’t you! Wolfe eyes ed, thinks about eating him. [(escapes) --ed.]

Still he had a point. Nice things about Democrats.

I like Nancy Pelosi’s fur… I mean hair?

Second, serially, as Al Gore is allegedly wont to say, a lot of people, including this wolf, believed that Nancy Pelosi was going to appoint the corrosively corrupt Alcee Hastings to Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. She’s not. Good.

Why not appoint the ranking Democrat? Good question. That’s Jane Harman, like Pelosi, a female congresscritter from California. This wolf honestly suspects that were Harman a man, she’d be appointed by Pelosi. Yeah, I’m accusing Pelosi of sexism, and being catty. Which in turn is sexist, and wolfish of me.

Anyway, long story short, it looks like the new Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee will be Silvestre Reyes. What, that’s a name? [yes -- ed.].

You’re back again? (wolfe growls [(vanishes) -- ed.])

And Congresscritter Reyes, a man who voted against the Iraq war and opposed the administration said something very interesting:

In a surprise twist in the debate over Iraq, Rep. Silvestre Reyes, the soon-to-be chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, said he wants to see an increase of 20,000 to 30,000 U.S. troops as part of a stepped up effort to “dismantle the militias.�

This is exactly the signal the Democrats need to send. Pin the war on Bush all you wish, but signal that the US will not be defeated, will not ‘cut and run’. That latter, of course, is a nifty campaign antidote to whatever Republican goes for the Presidency in ‘08, but it’s also got the virtue of being good for the country.

There we go. Nancy Pelosi didn’t appoint a corrupt guy, and Representative Silvestre Reyes said something pretty smart.

Two nice things about Democrats. [I knew you could do it --ed.]

You again!?

Oh well, now I can go back to being mean about them and chasing communists. (howls at the moon… is interrupted by a thought).

Wait! Both Nancy Pelosi and Hilary Clinton have nice fur.

I mean hair.

There! Four nice things about Democrats!

-wolfe

The minimum wage is bad

Wednesday, December 6th, 2006

I’m not altogether happy with the formatting of this post — please note I have a picture on the left and text to its right. Believe me, that took a half hour of messing about to look even half decent, and I know HTML. Probably not going to pursue it further, and yes, the paragraph breaks are not where they should be in the accompanying text. Believe it or not, that’s something I can’t readily control. That’s what I wasted time on. It’s good enough; so be it. Here are my arguments.
The minimum wage is a bad thing; being against it is therefore a good thing.

Why is the minimum wage a bad thing? Well it’s not bad if your objective is to harm the poor and render them unemployed. But most of us that aren’t sadistic or evil, don’t like harming the poor.

The minimum wage has an objective: give the working poor more money so they are less poor. I think it’s a very nice objective. I like it. I don’t know if it’s as good an objective as sex, looking at boobies [worksafe, and ooo, I better post a picture, below], or drinking nice scotch, but it’s a pretty good objective. It’s up there.

And now, a gratuitous picture.

The Macallan
Bet you thought it was going to be a picture of boobies, right? You lose. Photo Credit: Macallan website.
Back to the minimum wage. There’s one tiny catch of course. Where does the money we’re trying to get to the working poor come from?Well, answer the proponents of (inevitably) higher minimum wages, it comes from you and me via the businesses (and governments) that now pay their lowest-earning employees slightly more.This sounds to me kind of like a sneaky tax.
And of course it is. Employers aren’t stupid.
Well, actually quite a lot of them are, but they’re taken care of by a process called “bankruptcy”.Unless they’re a government.Washing dishes may be worth (say) $7.00 an hour to the owners of a small restaurant, but if the cost becomes $8, the owners will buy a dishwasher. The least competent dishwashers will be fired, and the most competent one will be retained to load and unload the dishwasher.

This isn’t simply a fancy argument: it’s been proven empirically by examining the correlation, while controlling for other variables (fancy words, I know), between minimum wage levels and unemployment rates amongst the poor, the untrained and the stupid (all of whom a high minimum wage hurts).

There are other groups of course that the minimum wage hurts as well, as I suggested above: the stupid and the untrained (typically students or young people).

True, you can tweak the minimum wage so that it doesn’t apply to (say) those under 18 — or even 27, in the case of certain labour laws in some enlightened European countries, but that still doesn’t help the poor or the stupid.

Ultimately, if your objective really is to help the employed poor, you’re best off setting a very low minimum wage of, say $1 or $2/hr, and utilizing some form of refundable (and even advanced) Earned Income Tax Credit.

You might also want to gut Social Security ‘head’ taxes as these are the most regressive and, arguably, racist taxes going.

This of course is also redistributive, and debatably socialist, but interferes far less and is economically rational and defensible.

And that, I suppose, is yet another reason why I’m no longer a libertarian — I just don’t object to some forms of income redistribution that much.

I’d rather my tax dollars go to educating poor legal immigrants’ kids than employing their (older) children to shoot illegal immigrants.

But that’s just me.

-wolfe

The Cause of our Times

Tuesday, November 21st, 2006

lebanese_hezbollah_recruts_being_sworn_in.jpg
A lot of people thought we stopped this garbage
back in the 1940’s. Guess we didn’t. Nice salutes.
Photo credit: Szzuhzaila Sazzhmarani,
Agence France Press, via Wikipedia.

 

These are Hezbollah fighters saluting, ready to be martyrs for The Cause. Perversely, this is Martyr’s Day, 11 November 2006. Lebanon is asking the US to remove Hezbollah from the list of terrorist groups. Because … uh… well, they just want to kill Jews. They don’t really want to kill Americans. Unless, you know, they have to.

There’s an evil at work here that we ignore at our peril. For a shining nanosecond, Gloria Steinem looks good. Then I realize feminism is in league with these monsters.

NB- I have inserted Z’s in the stringer’s name so that he’s not identified in a google search with this website which opposes Islamofascism. Don’t want him being hurt over something I write. For his actual name, remove the Z’s.

-wolfe

Exciting New Stars for next Harry Potter!

Monday, November 20th, 2006

You heard it here first. George W. Bush and Vladimir “Pooty-poot” Putin starring as new wizard masters at Hogwarts. Whoever got all those leaders to dress up in those robes has quite the sense of humor. Somewhere there’s a picture with China’s leader and those two, but this one is slightly funnier.

Bush and Putin in Wizard's Robes. Or something.
New Hogwarts Headmaster George W. Bush explains
his techniques to new Defence Against the Dark Arts teacher
Vladimir Putin. Or Something.
Photo: Daily Mail, UK. No credited photographer.

What’s even weirder is that the ao dai (as those robes are more correctly known) is more frequently used as a wedding dress or formal girls’ school uniform.

So whoever managed to persuade the leaders of the world to dress up in the Vietnamese equivalent of a tartan minikilt, blouse, and stockings must be some negotiator. Sneaky Commies.

It’s a wonder the Vietnam war lasted as long as it did.

-wolfe

Winners and Losers

Wednesday, November 8th, 2006

It was a good night for Democrats, but not a historic one. A swing of 4 Senate seats (6, counting the independents as Democrat pickups) and a swing of 27 (counting a previous independent who caucused with the Democrats as a retention) is strong, but, surprisingly, slightly smaller than historic losses in the 6th year of a presidency.

(I’m assuming recounts will confirm Democratic victories in Virginia and Montana).

Charles Krauthammer, writing last Friday in the Washington Post noted that, post WW2, the average loss in the sixth year of a two-term president is 29 seats in the House, and 6 in the Senate.

That puts this very marginally below average, and at the high end of my own predictions (low 20’s for the House, 4-6 for the Senate).
Add in FDR’s second term, pre-war, and the House losses leap to 35 on average.

No question though, the Democrats are winners, and the Republicans are losers. (In the ‘be careful what you wish for’ category, I did express the hope that Webb would win even if it meant Republican control of the Senate. Looks like he has and that it does.)

Personally, I believe that had the Republicans somehow held on to both houses, their chances of winning the Presidential election in 2008 would have been near zero. Now? Non-zero.

My quick analysis:

Winners:

  • Nancy Pelosi, obviously. She’s now Madam Speaker.
  • James Webb D-Senate-Virginia. (assuming he squeaks through in the Senate). He’s a wild card but he could be a significant contender as VP nominee in ‘08 or ‘12.
  • Joe Lieberman. I-Senate-Connecticut. Hung tough and won as an independent.
  • Rahm Emmanuel. Chair of the DCCC — the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Pushing towards the center, tireless fundraising, good candidate selection, and a Karl Rove-style determination to focus tactically on winnable races.
  • Olympia Snowe. R-Maine. You’re a Republican Senator. In a blue state. And you win 74% of the vote. In 2006. It’s hard to imagine what could dislodge her.
  • John McCain (Senator, R-Arizona). He campaigned heavily for a lot of races, and may have made a difference in some. He’s stored up some chits for 2008.
  • Anti-Corruption. Well at least some friends of the odious Jack Abramoff (crooked lobbyist with heavy Republican connections) went down to defeat.
  • Corruption. The Washington Post reports Alcyee Hastings will likely be nominated to head the Intelligence committee by Speaker Pelosi. Hastings was a staggeringly corrupt judge, and only the sixth in history to be impeached and removed from office by Congress and Senate. Jack Murtha will run for Majority Leader; some remember him as the man caught on tape by the FBI saying he ‘wasn’t interested… at this point’ in a bribe of $50,000, but that if he got to know the bribers a bit better, maybe they could work something out.
  • Some conservative/libertarian ideals. The Michigan Civil Rights Initiative looks to have passed. Essentially abandoned by the Republican party, good for Ward Connerly and Jennifer Gratz. Similarly, anti-Kelo measures to prevent government expropriating private property to turn it over to developers for private use have done well. The Republicans paid lip service to this, but didn’t seem really invested in the fight.

Losers:

  • George W. Bush. Oh, to be sure, he’s not a loser by “historic standards”, but the last two years of his presidency are going to be incredibly painful. He’ll get a chance to prove he’s a ‘uniter not a divider’, but don’t expect to see any great legislation he backs passing.
  • John F. Kerry. If you heard about his gaffe in the days before the election, you know whereof I speak. If you didn’t, he managed to bungle a bad joke aimed at Bush into an incredibly insulting remark about US soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines. Whether he’s stupid, arrogant, or just tone deaf no one knows. Or now cares.
  • Lincoln Chafee. R-Rhode Island, former Senator. One of the more anti-war Senators, and so anti-Bush he didn’t vote for him in ‘04!
  • George Allen (Former(?) R Senator for Virginia). Even if he doesn’t lose to Webb, his presidential aspirations are about as dead as John Kerry’s.
  • ‘Netroots’ Democratic activists who heavily supported toppling Lieberman and demonized the man as “Rape Gurney Joe”. A little more anger and he could have ended up caucusing with Republicans… and good-bye to the Democrats holding the Senate. Ideological purity is all well and good, but if you make your party too small, it just won’t win.
  • Optimistic Republicans who kept preaching the party wasn’t going to lose the house (much less the Senate).
  • Ideas. Neither party seemed to have any other than “Stay the course” and “George Bush is bad”. Contrast the 1994 Contract with America — Newt Gingrich was chock-full of ideas, some good, some bad.
  • Karl Rove. He doesn’t lose his “boy genius” status, but he gets a bit of tarnish to it, and he’s removed as the night-time terror for Democrats.

And now, just 12-14 months until the 2008 elections start heating up.

-wolfe

My predictions and Live Blogging.

Tuesday, November 7th, 2006

Well here’s my chance to fall flat on my face in US election predictions.

My summary? The Republicans deserve to lose; the Democrats do not deserve to win.

The Democrats will narrowly take the House by 4-8+ seats. (If the Democrats break 229, I’m an idiot prognosticator).

The Senate will stay very narrowly in Republican hands. (51/49 or so). If the Dems hit 52, I’m equally idiotic.

I could be setting myself up to look like a fool here if the Democrats achieve the blowout that some suggest. But, from talking with friends over some weeks, I’m comfortable with what I’m projecting.

Enough of projections, here are my hopes:

I’m hoping for Jim Webb (D) to win a slightly uphill struggle in Virginia, and Michael Steele (R) to win an uphill struggle in Maryland.

There’s nothing wrong (despite negative advertising) with their opponents; but both are very good men who’d have a profound impact on their respective parties. The Democrats need to move into the 20th century with Webb; the Republicans need to do so as well with Steele.

Bless, protect, and enlighten our candidates.

Take care all, and prepare for a hungover wolfe tomorrow if the Republicans lose horribly. And cheers to my Democratic readers who will no doubt be happy.

-wolfe

Vote. Please do.

Sunday, November 5th, 2006

This is obviously aimed at Americans, but non-Americans may find my comments interesting. Apologies if you don’t.

I’d respectfully ask that you vote for people who treat the war seriously. For what it’s worth, I advance voted for a Democrat for Senate, because I believed that individual was more capable, and treated the war more seriously. I also think the Republicans collectively deserve to lose. (Sadly, I don’t think the Democrats collectively deserve to win).

US Flag

Yeah, I know, shock. wolfe votes Democrat. World ends. Film at 11.

Here are some Democrats (and Republicans) I like. Just 3 Senate races:

- James Webb D-Senate (VA). The guy’s an author, he makes me look like a pantywaist. The campaign has been a mudslinging mess; his Republican opponent is ok, but Webb is a better man.

I’ve no clue how the man got to be a Democratic nominee (other than opposition to the war), but his book Born Fighting is, imo, a must read.

- Michael Steele R-Senate (MD). He’s honest. Amazingly so. One of the first statewide black office-holders. Smart, capable, kinda funny. He won’t be your grandaddy’s Republican, he’ll be good — great — for my party. Check out his videos; they’re good.

- Harold Ford D-Senate (TN). Seems astonishingly forthright. (”You went to a playboy superbowl party”…. “Yes, I like girls and football”). Serious family issues, but seems possibly a man of integrity. Would be first black senator from TN since reconstruction. I have to say that eliminates some of my doubts. Yeah, that’s biased of me. Too bad. Like Steele — and Webb — he’d be good for his party.

I’d be happy to see all 3 elected.

But get out and vote; encourage your friends to do so. This is a mid-term election, but it’s an important one.

-wolfe